El vicepresidente de Estados Unidos, JD Vance, culpó este miércoles al descontento por la impopular guerra que el presidente Donald Trump lanzó contra Irán como la principal causa de la estrepitosa derrota republicana en las elecciones legislativas donde los demócratas recuperaron el control del Congreso.
La razón por la que perdimos es la guerra. El propio presidente lo dijo anoche”, escribió Vance en una larga publicación en X, horas después de que los pronósticos confirmaran mayorías demócratas amplias en el Senado y la Cámara de Representantes.
Y reconoció: “Cualquier conversación honesta sobre el rumbo que debemos tomar a partir de ahora tiene que empezar por ahí. (…) Sigo teniendo esperanza en nuestro país. A quienes están furiosos y quieren decir ‘se lo advertimos’: tienen razón, nos lo advirtieron”.
Trump culpó al gobernador de Texas, Greg Abbott, y a la guerra en Irán por la derrota de los republicanos en las elecciones intermedias en EE.UU.
https://t.co/EkIyVXPwHB
— Joaquín López-Dóriga (@lopezdoriga) November 4, 2026
Electores que apoyaron a Trump y ahora votaron demócrata
En su extensa reflexión, en la que parece querer distanciarse de Trump, JD Vance afirmó que “el principal problema no es la participación” en los comicios, sino que muchos de los que votaron por la dupla presidencial en 2024, dieron un giro y votaron a los demócratas este martes.
Habrá muchas disputas internas y discusiones sobre qué pasó y por qué. Uno de los encuestadores a los que más respeto me dijo que nuestro mensaje económico no fue lo suficientemente contundente en la recta final. Estoy seguro de que es cierto. Pero la verdadera razón por la que perdimos es evidente para casi todos”, insistió sobre la guerra.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
El costo político y económico del conflicto
Trump admitió este martes a Fox News que su acometida contra Irán, actualmente estancada sin visos de un acuerdo de paz, influyó en los resultados electorales, pero continuó defendiendo su decisión de atacar a la república islámica para acabar con su programa nuclear.
Los demócratas superaron las expectativas en unas elecciones vistas como un barómetro de la gestión de Trump y atravesadas por el descontento ante la inflación y las subidas de la gasolina y el diésel, vistas como una consecuencia directa de la guerra en Irán y la interrupción del tráfico en el estratégico estrecho de Ormuz.
Trump y un Congreso totalmente opositor: ¿Qué margen de maniobra tendrá en los próximos dos años de su mandato?
https://t.co/spxDvCjJxQ
— Joaquín López-Dóriga (@lopezdoriga) November 4, 2026
Los demócratas también recuperaron la Cámara de Representantes con una mayoría que podría alcanzar los 258 escaños, según proyecciones de NBC, muy por encima de los 218 necesarios para controlar el hemiciclo.
Con información de EFE
La entrada “La razón por la que perdimos es la guerra”: JD Vance explica el revés republicano aparece primero en López-Dóriga Digital.
Información tomada de López Dóriga Digital